Technically, there are already billionaires in the world. After all, the term does not mean more than someone whose wealth is worth more than a trillion units of whatever currency is being used for comparison. As a result, many people can be considered billionaires when their wealth is measured using the world’s least valuable currencies, with current examples ranging from the Iranian rial to the Vietnamese dong. (1) Of course, this is not what most people really think of when the term trillion is mentioned, as it tends to refer to someone whose wealth is worth a trillion or more when measured in US dollars. .
When will we see the first billionaire?
Until now, no one has even come close to becoming the first billionaire. (2) For example, Business Insider claims that Bill Gates was the richest person in the world at the beginning of 2016 at $ 87.4 billion, less than a tenth of what a billionaire would have. They are followed by Amancio Ortega with $ 66.8 billion, Warren Buffet with $ 60.7 billion, Jeff Bezos with $ 56.6 billion and David Koch with $ 47.4 billion. In fact, even when the wealth of the 50 richest people in the world has been combined, it would still not exceed $ 1.46 trillion.
As a result, it may seem that the first billionaire will not make his appearance in the world for some time. However, it is important to note that the current wealth of the world’s richest people can be misleading when it comes to predicting the future wealth of the world’s richest people because economic conditions are constantly changing. For example, the richest people have been getting richer and richer for some time, which means that the first billionaire could make his appearance in the world sooner than most people expect.
Credit Suisse has predicted that there will be many more millionaires, many more billionaires, and more than ten billionaires in two generations, which is actually a relatively conservative estimate. (4) Other financial experts have made more optimistic predictions, ranging from Ipsos MediaCT chief knowledge officer Steve Kraus, who has stated that he would not be surprised if a billionaire appeared in 25 years, to New World Wealth senior analyst Andrew Amoils. , who has stated that there is an 11 percent chance of a billionaire appearing in the same time frame. (4) Assuming these sources are correct, it seems like there is a good chance that the world’s first billionaire is someone living right now.
There are several reasons why this is the case. For example, new techniques and technologies are constantly being released onto the open market, which means there are increasing opportunities for people to come up with something that grabs the world’s attention. Furthermore, the world is becoming more and more interconnected, even as most of its countries are getting richer and richer, which means there are more and more opportunities for successful companies to make a sale. To understand this point, imagine how much less Mark Zuckerberg’s Facebook shares would be worth in a world where social media platforms were limited to individual countries due to economic barriers rather than most of the world.
Finally, it should be noted that inflation plays a role, albeit a relatively small one, in the grand scheme of things. In short, some inflation is a sign that the economy is doing well because it shows that people are competing so much for a limited number of products and services that they are actually increasing prices, making their currency less and less valuable. over time. . With the passage of enough time, this can result in noticeable changes in the purchasing power of that coin, which in turn, means that someone could have the same purchasing power even if they have a more impressive sound number to their name. This can be seen in the example of the world’s first billionaire, John D. Rockefeller, who reached $ 50 billion, but would be worth around $ 400 billion in modern times. (5)
What are the obstacles for someone to become a billionaire?
With that said, it’s important to note that there are some serious roadblocks to someone reaching a trillion dollars sometime soon. First, it seems likely that the richest people in the world today are not the ones who become the world’s first billionaire. In part, this is because most of them are old, which means they don’t have the time to make it. However, it should also be noted that Bill Gates, who …